Noob DCA Strategy
https://www.moonmath.win
The noob DCA strategy is ongoing. Continue making you're regularly scheduled, affordable, and responsible purchases using disposable income that you can afford to lose.
We have completed 28 days in the noob DCA and there are 213 days left for you to establish your first full position in Bitcoin.
No bubbles are identical
https://www.tradingview.com/x/QsCraIAe/ Please disregard the errors in period duration in this chart. It's corrected in later charts.
The rate of change in bubble cycles shouldn't match up day over day. Instead, we should look at indicators to signal and eventually confirm market position. The chart above is meant to illustrate a possible market bottom that is historically rare. Matching up those market bottoms and stretching data to match the peaks and valleys is more illustrative.
So what happens when we do that?
Projecting the two most relevant bubbles
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tejeK3RY/ Please disregard the errors in period duration in this chart. It's corrected in later charts.
That chart takes the only two periods in the past WHERE weekly RSI is descending to historically lows levels AND there is a 6 + week following period where Weekly BBand width is less than 40%.
Looking at how these data overlap in the 55 week period following May of 2015 creeps me out. The similarities between then and now are... uncomfortably symmetric. 55 weeks is an arbitrary period of time that I marked on the chart. It's irrelevant other than the fact that it makes the pattern easier to see and it highlights the difference between price performance in preceding periods of price stability.
Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. It's also hard to believe that it's the coincidence that it is.
What happens when you stop caring about RSI and just look at extended periods of stability?
Projecting all relevant bubbles
https://www.tradingview.com/x/f8mMjUUt/
You get more data points. Not a tone more, but you get more. This chart effectively recreates one of /u/azop 's stability charts, but in trading view. /r/BitcoinMarkets has a long history with projecting extended periods of stability as progenitors to bubble cycles. This is not a new concept. What distinguishes our current position is the direction and position of RSI.
Previous posts in this series
New TradingView chart published
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Jy20zHCu-Projecting-prices-from-stable-periods/
Currently:
Bitcoin is potentially in a period of consolidation at the end of a large bubble cycle. Movement will seem sideways and down until indicators signal the next wave of adoption. Sentiment will remain low. Recovery will be slow for the next 7 - 15 weeks. Bitcoin obituaries are surging and general sentiment is very low.
A breakout through local resistance at 10k can happen as soon as mid July but may take until October. Significant price discovery is being established at the bottom of a new long-term trading range and may confirm the bottom of a new channel that should last through the next halving event, in 2020.
The US government seems to have greenlit development of trading desks and financial tools at major.
Crackdowns on ICOs and altcoin speculation are just beginning to kibosh unchecked growth in alt markets. Bitcoin's market domination will likely be confirmed after G20 nations implement effective regulations against rampant gambling and illegal financial tools.
Large leveraged positions against the altcoin markets still aren't available to most traders who operate in compliance with local laws, but they will probably be made available over the next 1 - 2 years.
A : Medium-term consolidation
Resistance to growth remains through June, part of July, and possibly into August. Bearish and moderate performance is accompanied by nearly unprecedented price stability. Two heavy resistance lines are broken before bullish sentiment can return.
B : New ATH sometime between September 2018 and June 2019
Heavy resistance is broken--drawn from the 2014 ATH and the January 2018 breakdown from our local ATH—and moderate sentiment keeps bitcoin in a consolidation phase under the previous ATH for many months. A new wave of adoption from new markets is eventually identified. Full capitulation from alt market speculation exposes frivolous and or fraudulent Crypto assets and securities. Government crackdowns and arrests begin to pile up in altmarket ICOs. Public outcry against abuse and fraud triggers international concern. Capital escapes from small alts to the top 5 - 10. There are less than 20 Cryptos with a market cap over 500 million USD.
C :The ascending wedge drawn from the 2013 ATH is difficult to break.
We bounce off an ascending wedge and establish a new ATH between September 2018 and July 2019. The bottom of the channel is retested near the current ATH. Capital flight into Bitcoin from alts will eventually pushes bitcoin through the resulting falling wedge.
Bitcoin's user base rapidly grows. It's fueled by speculation that institutional adoption and an ETF are on the way. Speculation attracts a new wave of users who are disenchanted with traditional investments. Bitcoin's young male demographic starts to diversify and enter new markets internationally.
Segwit and Lightning adoption demonstrate 1000x increase in possible transaction support while significantly decreasing transaction fees. LocalBitcoin processes 15 to 30 million USD in transactions daily. Press praises Bitcoin as a tool ready or nearly ready for "Main Street." A use case for Lightning in retail businesses is implemented in some markets.
D : Bounce off the top of the new long-term channel by October 2019
Speculative fever ignites again and Bitcoin hits the top of a new, yet to be formed, long-term channel for the first time since December 2017. Our new ATH is somewhere between 50k and 160k USD/BTC. The correction to the bottom of the channel triggers a fresh wave of obituaries.
Hitting the top of the channel signals a long-term bear market and moves the price into a comparatively moderate range, well under 100K USD. Bouncing off the top of the channel completes before speculation about the halving takes hold of sentiment in early 2020.
E : Projecting into the future
By the end of 2019, 1 million USD price targets are commonly issued from established financial institutions in the United States. The halving and its market impact are discussed regularly in mainstream media outlets. Fees are so low on lightning transactions that you can still buy a cup of coffee with Bitcoin at the speculative peak without noticing a substantial price difference.
By the end of 2020, small businesses begin to use Bitcoin as a tool to manage their supply chains without debt so their payments can be sent and received in real time. Communities that exchange value this way start to out compete large organizations and a small new economy begins to form around business that exclusively use Bitcoin and smart contracts to manage and coordinate distributed workloads and resources.
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